Why this now: Both Klarna (BNPL) and Figure (HELOC lender) are lining up U.S. IPOs. If you want fintech exposure without a 50-page S-1, here’s the quick, side-by-side on growth, profitability paths, credit risk—and when each can “win” in a portfolio.
Key takeaways
- Valuations: Klarna is targeting ~$14B; Figure is guiding to ~$4.1B.
- Growth & profits: Klarna grew ~24% in 2024 and posted a small annual profit; Figure swung to H1-2025 profitability.
- Credit risk: BNPL is unsecured and shows higher default/late-pay rates industry-wide; HELOCs are secured by homes and have low serious delinquency today.
- Multiples (rough): Klarna ~5x 2024 revenue; Figure ~70x annualized H1-2025 net income (small denominator).
- When each wins: Klarna for global consumer/merchant network upside; Figure for collateral-backed credit and housing-equity cycle.
1) The basics: what each does
Klarna is a global “buy now, pay later” platform plus checkout, app-based shopping, and adjacent financial services. It makes money from merchant fees, consumer fees in some markets, and card/interchange.
Figure underwrites home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and runs a tech/marketplace stack around those loans (including securitization/distribution). It leans on blockchain rails under the hood but sells a familiar, regulated credit product.
Jargon buster
BNPL: Short-term, installment credit at checkout, usually unsecured.
HELOC: Revolving credit secured by your home’s equity.
Serious delinquency: 90+ days past due.
2) Growth & path to profit
Klarna
- Reported 2024 revenue of about $2.81B (+24% YoY) and first annual net profit (~$21M) after heavy 2022–23 losses.
- Latest filings show a large user/merchant base and continued top-line momentum into 2025.
- Translation: growth looks durable, but operating margins are still thin and can wobble with credit costs.
Figure
- Filed to go public in August; H1-2025: turned profitable (~$29M net income) while scaling HELOC originations and marketplace activity.
- Growth tailwinds: homeowners locked into low mortgage rates are tapping equity instead of refinancing, lifting HELOC demand.
So what: Klarna is the bigger network with more levers (app, merchant reach, geographic spread). Figure is smaller but focused, with a path to profits rooted in a prime-leaning, collateralized asset.
3) Credit risk—who’s taking the real heat?
BNPL (Klarna’s core): Unsecured, small-ticket loans. Industry-wide, defaults and late payments have been meaningfully higher than traditional prime lending—regulators have flagged this for years. Klarna says on-time payments are improving, but sector data still shows more missed payments than you’d see in secured credit.
HELOCs (Figure’s core): Loans are secured by home equity, and serious delinquencies remain historically low right now, even as household debt rises. That can change if home prices fall or unemployment spikes, but today’s baseline risk is comparatively mild.
So what: In a steady labor market with stable home prices, Figure’s book carries lower expected loss than unsecured BNPL. In a downturn that hits housing, HELOC performance would tighten—but loss-given-default is cushioned by collateral.
4) What are you paying? Quick multiples & comps
Klarna valuation math (rough):
- Target valuation ~$14B.
- 2024 revenue ~$2.81B → ~5.0x trailing revenue.
- Profit multiple is less useful (tiny 2024 profit, choppy quarterly results).
Figure valuation math (rough):
- Target valuation up to ~$4.1B.
- Reported ~$29M net income in H1-2025; annualized ≈ $58M → ~70x P/E on that run-rate (very back-of-envelope; early-scale profits are volatile).
- Revenue multiple is TBD until we have full S-1 line items post-roadshow.
Macro lens: Consumer delinquencies have drifted up, but mortgage/HELOC performance remains strong by historical standards; BNPL stress is more visible in regulator and survey data. That gap explains why Figure’s credit cost per dollar lent can be structurally lower than BNPL peers, while Klarna trades on network/growth potential.
When each “wins” in a portfolio
- Pick Klarna if you want: A global consumer-commerce network, optionality beyond BNPL (app, cards, services), and you can stomach credit-cycle and regulatory swings for higher growth upside. Think of it like a payments/commerce platform with a BNPL engine.
- Pick Figure if you want: Collateral-backed credit exposure tied to U.S. homeowner equity, cleaner credit outcomes (today), and a simpler path to operating leverage as volumes scale. Think of it like a tech-enabled specialty lender with securitization chops.
- Barbell both if: You want diversified fintech beta—Klarna for network growth + Figure for asset-backed credit—accepting that each has different macro sensitivities (consumer spending vs. housing).
Bottom line
Both names can work—for different reasons. Klarna offers the bigger TAM and platform upside but carries unsecured-credit cyclicality and regulatory scrutiny. Figure offers credit quality and unit-economics clarity so long as housing stays resilient.
One practical next step: Size positions by macro view—overweight Klarna if you expect resilient consumer spending and stable/lower rates; tilt to Figure if you like home-equity credit with low serious delinquencies and steady housing.
Sources
- Klarna files for U.S. IPO; 2024 revenue & profit figures. Reuters (Mar 14, 2025). Reuters
- Klarna target IPO valuation (~$14B). Reuters (Sept 2, 2025). Reuters
- Klarna investor materials & quarterly results (2025). Klarna IR. Klarna Investors
- Figure S-1 filing (FT Intermediate → Figure Technology Solutions). SEC EDGAR index (Aug 18 & 25, 2025). SEC+1
- Figure IPO terms & H1-2025 profit; target valuation up to ~$4.1B. Reuters (Sept 2, 2025). Reuters
- BNPL consumer outcomes (defaults/late-pay context). CFPB report (Jan 2025). Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
- Household debt & HELOC balances; mortgage/HELOC performance context. NY Fed Q2-2025 release. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Meta description: Klarna vs Figure: quick side-by-side on growth, profits, credit risk, and IPO multiples—plus when each makes sense in a fintech portfolio.
Leave a Reply